General election odds and polls tracker: What is the likelihood of a vote in 2019, and who will win?

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The odds of a 2019 General Election are on the up

With a razor thin Parliamentary majority for Boris Johnson, and an opposition weighing up a no-confidence motion, the odds of a 2019 General Election have soared.

Such a small majority for the Conservatives means that Mr Johnson is likely to find life difficult as Prime Minister, with the smallest of rebellions having the potential to defeat any Government motions.

With time running out to secure a deal with the European Union before the October 31 deadline, and a number of backbench Tory MPs indicating they will block a no-deal Brexit, more people are coming to the conclusion that a general election might be the only way to break the deadlock.

You can track the odds of this happening on this page as we closer to the latest Brexit deadline.

The Prime Minister may have the decision made for him if opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn tables a successful motion of no-confidence, with the Labour leader indicating he could take that route if Johnson pursues a no-deal Brexit.

Under the 2010 Fixed-term Parliaments Act there are currently only two ways an early General Election could be triggered.

The first is via a two-thirds majority of MPs voting for a motion to hold an early election - this is how Theresa May called the 2017 snap election three years before it was due to take place.

The second is through a simple majority vote of no-confidence, requiring a specifically worded motion and also carrying a 14-day cooling-off period in which the Government can try and regain the confidence of the House.

If the government fails to regain the confidence of the House - and no other government forms - then an election is triggered and the Prime Minister must advise the Queen on a date for holding it.

Labour previously attempted a no-confidence motion against Mrs May's government in January, which was narrowly defeated 306-325.

Time running out for a pre-Halloween election

If an election is to happen before the Brexit Halloween deadline then time is rapidly running out, especially if it comes through a no-confidence motion which requires the additional 14-day cooling off period.

The Commons Library recently published estimates for how quickly an election could be held. Based on the Government losing a vote of no confidence on Parliament’s first day back on September 3, the earliest date an election could be held is October 24, just seven days before the UK is due to leave the EU.

Unfavourable arithmetic in the Commons for the Conservatives, coupled with a timely boost in the polls, could also be enough to encourage the new Prime Minister to pull the trigger himself.

However, based on current figures the most likely outcome following an autumn election is still a hung Parliament, considering it took five days to negotiate the 2010 coalition this creates a very tight timetable for the new Prime Minister to head to Brussels and ask for an extension.